AS Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, widening cracks within opposition parties are fueling fears that President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, may secure a second term long before voters head to the polls.
With barely 12 months to the polls, internal paralysis across major opposition platforms has slowed preparations to a crawl, even as the ruling APC consolidates power and quietly positions itself for another electoral cycle.
Across the opposition space, party structures remain unsettled, legal disputes unresolved, and coordination efforts fractured.
Indeed, the APC appears set to exploit the disunity of the opposition and has rolled out its election roadmap.
It last week, became the first party to publicly unveil its timetable and schedule of activities ahead of 2027.
According to the document signed by its National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, the party’s national convention is slated for March 25–28, 2026.
Party insiders said the early planning was aimed at consolidating internal unity and giving prospective candidates ample time to prepare.
In sharp contrast, major opposition platforms are still struggling to stabilise their internal structures, even as timelines for party congresses and primaries draw closer.
Labour Party crisis lingers
Although the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, recently recognised the leadership of Senator Esther Nenadi-Usman as acting national chairman of Labour Party, LP, the decision has not fully resolved the party’s prolonged leadership crisis.
INEC’s recognition, which was based on a court order, effectively sidelined the faction led by Comrade Julius Abure. However, loyalists of the ousted leadership insist the matter was far from settled.
On paper, it brings to an end a long-drawn leadership tussle.
Nenadi-Usman enjoys the support of Abia State governor, Alex Otti, and other stakeholders and a faction of the party led by Comrade Julius Abure.
A party source sympathetic to the Abure faction told Vanguard that the recognition could be reversed if a superior court issued a contrary ruling.
The source also accused the Nenadi-Usman-led caretaker committee of failing to meet its mandate, particularly the requirement to conduct congresses and organise a national convention within three months.
“it is not yet over. What you saw on the INEC website was clear, Nenadi Usman’s recognition was ‘based on court order’ it simply means when it gets a superior court order it can change,”the source said
The lingering uncertainty has slowed mobilisation efforts and weakened the party’s capacity to rebuild momentum after its strong showing in the 2023 presidential election.
PDP trapped in legal and leadership paralysis
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant opposition force, appears even more deeply entangled in crisis.
Multiple leadership disputes at the national level, currently before the Court of Appeal, have effectively paralysed party activities.
Rival factions continue to lay claim to key offices, while congresses and reconciliation efforts remained stalled.
The uncertainty has weakened some state chapters and raised fears within the party that it may struggle to meet statutory deadlines once INEC formally rolls out the 2027 election timetable.
In several states, party activities have slowed or stopped altogether as members await judicial clarity.
The instability has been compounded by defections and internal fragmentation, reducing the party’s influence across several states.
From having 13 governors after the 2023 elections, the PDP has dwindled to four, further weakening its national spread.
Factional National Chairman, Dr. Kabiru Turaki, has sought to calm fears over delays in the appellate courts, insisting that all necessary briefs had been filed, expressing confidence that the cases would soon be heard, possibly in a consolidated judgment.
“There are actually more than two matters pending,” Turaki said, explaining that the party had appealed multiple judgments affecting its leadership.
“Am I concerned that the appeals have not yet been heard? No, I am not concerned as a lawyer… All briefs in these matters are now properly before the court,” he said, adding that he was confident that the Court of Appeal would prioritise the cases and possibly consolidate them into a single judgment capable of resolving the leadership crisis.
Still, party insiders worry that the prolonged uncertainty could affect the PDP’s ability to meet statutory deadlines once INEC releases the official election timetable.
ADC coalition struggles with unity
African Democratic Congress, ADC, now the main platform for an emerging opposition coalition, is also facing internal headwinds.
Planned ward congresses were postponed, with party leaders shifting focus to setting up a 50-member policy and manifesto committee. While the ADC leadership describes the move as strategic, critics say the delay raises concerns about the party’s preparedness for the 2027 race.
Rivalry between supporters of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and those loyal to former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi has continued to play out publicly, complicating efforts to project unity.
Supporters of Obi, operating under the banner of the Obidient Movement, insist that his candidacy is non-negotiable, arguing that youths and women remain the dominant force in Nigeria’s voting population. On the other hand, Atiku’s supporters maintain that the former vice president remains the most experienced contender, citing his long-standing role in party building and electoral politics.
A source familiar with coalition talks said the inability of opposition leaders to manage competing ambitions could derail the entire project.
“While the ruling party is quietly positioning itself for 2027, the opposition is still arguing over structure, leadership and who gets what. That confusion is now playing out in public,” the source said.
Defections tilt balance towards APC
The opposition’s woes have been worsened by a steady stream of defections to the APC, including sitting governors and prominent political figures. Analysts say the defections are driven largely by uncertainty over credible primaries, access to campaign resources and internal cohesion within opposition parties.
In several states, the exits have fractured party structures, leaving behind weakened chapters and unresolved disputes.
A Makurdi-based political scientist, Emmanuel Edache, said opposition parties appear more driven by personalities than ideology.
“I am yet to be convinced that the opposition is serious about replacing Tinubu in 2027. To win, there must be sacrifice and unity. Those who insist on ‘it must be me or nobody’ will ultimately undermine the project,” he said.
CUPP warns opposition
National Secretary of the Coalition of United Political Parties, CUPP, Chief Peter Ameh, warned that opposition parties risk political self-deception if they believe they can defeat the APC without a united front.
“The first step to defeating this regime is for us in opposition to come together. We must unite, chose the right candidate and ensure people not only come out to vote but also protect their votes. Without this, 2027 will be a lost cause,” Ameh toldVanguard.
INEC urges patience
Logistical and financial pressures linked to the approaching electoral cycle have deepened the strain. Although INEC has yet to officially release the 2027 election schedule, timelines circulating within political circles suggest party primaries could hold between July and September 2026. Conducting congresses from ward to national levels within that window requires funding and unity that many opposition parties currently lack.
Concerns have also been raised about pending electoral reforms. Amendments to the Electoral Act, including provisions mandating real-time electronic transmission of results, were passed by the House of Representatives in December 2025 and are awaiting consideration by the Senate. Opposition figures fear that delays or late-stage changes could further complicate already fragile preparations.
However, the INEC has distanced itself from unofficial election timelines circulating in political circles and stated that it would publish the official notice of election strictly in line with Section 28(1) of the Electoral Act.se not later than 360 days before the election.
A statement released by Adedayo Oketola, Media Adviser to the INEC National Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, read in part: “The Commission reiterates that it operates strictly within the provisions of the law. In particular, Section 28(1) of the Electoral Act, 2022 provides that the Commission shall publish a Notice of Election not later than 360 days before the date appointed for a general election. Any timetable or schedule issued outside this statutory framework cannot emanate from INEC.” (Vanguard)
